Subsidy, Reform and the Courage to Change

Nigeria’s 2027 presidential contest is only beginning, but the political conversation has already started to shift from personalities and political histories toward policies that shape daily life. That change is welcome, this article argues, because elections should offer competing visions for governing the country, strengthening the economy and improving welfare.

Against that backdrop, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s renewed position on petrol subsidies deserves scrutiny. Atiku says he would restore a form of subsidy if elected in 2027, but he has specified a targeted and capped production subsidy, transparently included in the budget and tied to domestic refining. He is not proposing a return to the former import-subsidy system.

The proposal raises a question the article says Nigerians are entitled to ask: what changed between 2023 and 2026? During the 2023 campaign, Atiku did not oppose removing subsidies. He said he had chaired a committee on subsidy removal and would continue the process, eliminate subsidies completely and redirect the savings into the economy. His policy document also called for ending fuel subsidies within his first 100 days in office.

That position rested on the argument that the system consumed enormous public resources while creating opportunities for fraud, smuggling and rent-seeking. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu later acted on essentially the same diagnosis. On May 29, 2023, he announced the end of the subsidy regime, accepting the immediate political consequences for households, commuters and businesses.

The hardship that followed has been substantial. Transport costs rose, food prices increased and purchasing power declined. The government, the article says, must acknowledge those realities. But acknowledging the pain caused by reform is not the same as agreeing that reform was unnecessary. For decades, Nigeria spent heavily on subsidizing petrol while struggling to finance infrastructure and productive capacity. The old system was also vulnerable to smuggling, diversion and manipulation, and its benefits were not always distributed according to need.