Sudan's Islamist movement faces diminished influence amid shifting war alliances

Sudan is navigating a complex phase as its protracted war reshapes military and political alliances. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have seen defectors from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) join their ranks, alongside the Joint Forces of Darfur's armed movements and the Sudan Shield Forces, forming a new, albeit temporary, balance of power.

This evolving landscape reflects a convergence of interests among groups with vastly different backgrounds and visions for Sudan's future. While defeating the RSF serves as the primary unifying objective, underlying political and military differences cast doubt on the durability of this "alliance of necessity." Historically, wartime coalitions in Sudan have often fractured into arenas of post-conflict power struggles.

The Sudanese army now acts as the main military umbrella for these disparate groups. The Joint Forces from Darfur bring combat experience, the Sudan Shield Forces represent a growing tribal and military power, and former RSF members seek integration. This configuration, however, diminishes the relative weight of Sudan's Islamist movement.

For decades, Islamists were a dominant force in Sudan through their extensive networks. Now, they are no longer the sole source of political backing, military support, or social mobilization. Many rising groups do not align with the Islamist project and some have a history of rivalry with Islamists dating back to the Omar al-Bashir regime. Consequently, the Islamists have become one actor among several competing centers of influence, each pursuing its own interests in the postwar landscape.