Sudan War Nears Fourth Year Amidst Growing Calls for Settlement

After more than three years of devastating conflict, Sudan stands at a critical juncture, facing a deepening humanitarian crisis and mounting international pressure for a political settlement. The war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, which erupted in April 2023, has spread across the country, leaving neither side victorious and plunging Sudan into one of the world's worst humanitarian catastrophes.

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The cost of prolonging the war now appears to have outgrown what Sudan, its neighbors, and the wider international community can bear.

Sudan's history of protracted civil wars, some lasting over two decades, fuels fears that the current conflict could become another open-ended chapter. However, some argue this war is different, as the initial bets on swift military victories have proven futile. The widespread fighting has not yielded decisive results but has instead exacerbated the suffering of the Sudanese people and created significant regional instability.

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Sudan’s history offers little comfort. Its major wars have often lasted decades.

The international community increasingly views Sudan's war as a threat extending beyond its borders. Rising tensions in the Red Sea, fears of wider regional chaos in the Horn of Africa, and growing displacement and illegal migration have spurred intensified diplomatic efforts. A recent Berlin conference underscored this shift, with dozens of countries and organizations agreeing that the crisis "cannot be resolved militarily" and supporting a comprehensive negotiating track.

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As the battlefield grows more complex, the international community increasingly sees Sudan’s war as a threat beyond Sudan itself.

Senior U.S. officials, like Massad Boulos, have echoed this sentiment, stating there is "no military solution" and highlighting an "international consensus" to push parties toward negotiations and a ceasefire. While a settlement is not imminent, this growing conviction among influential powers reflects a deep concern that continued warfare could lead to the complete collapse of the Sudanese state, a scenario deeply feared by Sudan's neighbors and regional actors.

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Dozens of countries and international organizations agreed that Sudan’s crisis “cannot be resolved militarily” and voiced clear support for a comprehensive negotiating track.