‘Super El Niño’ Could Bring Wet Winter and Flooding to Western US, Scientists Warn

A powerful "super" El Niño is on the horizon, with climate scientists predicting a wet winter and elevated flood risks for the western and southeastern United States. This phenomenon, characterized by significantly above-average sea surface temperatures, is expected to intensify through the fall and winter, potentially persisting until early spring 2027.

California is particularly vulnerable, with models indicating a high chance of above-average coastal rainfall. Experts warn that this increased precipitation, especially during strong storm events or king tide cycles, could lead to significant coastal flooding. "El Niño is never going to guarantee any particular outcome in any California winter," noted UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain, but a strong event like this "shifts the odds in favor of a wet winter."

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El Niño is never going to guarantee any particular outcome in any California winter. But, a weather event as strong as the one being currently predicted shifts the odds in favor of a wet winter: “That will likely affect and increase the likelihood of coastal flooding, particularly during strong storm events or during king tide events.”

Historical data underscores the potential for devastation. The 1982-83 El Niño destroyed hundreds of homes and damaged thousands more along California's coast. A subsequent event in 1997-98 brought massive flooding and fatalities. More recently, the 2015-16 El Niño caused record coastal erosion. "With less beach in front of the coastline, the waves will have even greater impact on the shoreline with more likelihood of flooding and undercutting of cliffs," explained Mark Merrifield of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

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With less beach in front of the coastline, the waves will have even greater impact on the shoreline with more likelihood of flooding and undercutting of cliffs.

While the anticipated rainfall could alleviate drought conditions in some parts of the Southwest, experts caution that it may not be enough to fully replenish critically low reservoirs. "It would have to be exceptionally wet," said Dr. Joel Lisonbee, a scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. "That would also mean flooding, and the destruction and potential loss of life that comes along with that."

Similar risks of increased precipitation and severe weather, including tornadoes and flooding, are forecast for swathes of the US Gulf coast and the East Coast, from Florida up to the mid-Atlantic region. A 1998 El Niño event in Florida, for instance, saw an outbreak of strong tornadoes that resulted in 42 deaths and over $100 million in damages.

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It would have to be exceptionally wet. That would also mean flooding, and the destruction and potential loss of life that comes along with that.