"Super" El Niño could drive strong global food price surge by 2028

Economists are warning that the developing "super" El Niño cycle, predicted for 2026-2027, could trigger a severe shock to the global food market, with repercussions potentially lasting until 2028. This warning comes as the conflict between Iran and Israel has already pushed world food prices to a three-year high.

Scientists note that the 2026-2027 El Niño, caused by shifts in wind patterns warming the Pacific Ocean, has an unprecedented chance of becoming a "very strong" event. Such an event typically brings heatwaves, floods, and more intense storms. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed last month that this El Niño is already developing, with a 63% probability that sea surface temperatures will be more than two degrees Celsius above average later this year.

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El Niño puts the so-called climate inflation back into focus.

Experts are concerned that this extreme El Niño could further fuel inflation at a time when households globally are already struggling with the high cost of living. This also raises concerns for central banks, as interest rates might remain elevated for longer. Analysts at Italian bank UniCredit noted, "El Niño puts the so-called climate inflation back into focus." They added that recent heatwaves in Europe serve as a reminder that climate conditions are changing, and El Niño could amplify the effects of global warming.

Historically, El Niño has had a profound impact on agriculture and food supply chains. A powerful El Niño over a century ago led to devastating droughts in China, South Africa, Brazil, Egypt, and India, contributing to famines that claimed millions of lives. While past strong episodes include those from 1981–1982, 1996–1997, 2015–2016, and 2023–2024, NOAA projections suggest the 2026–2027 cycle could be even more potent. Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that such a strong El Niño could cause global food commodity prices to surge by 15.8%, potentially increasing food prices in the Eurozone by about 1.3%. The full impact is expected to be felt gradually, with consequences fully visible by the second half of 2028.

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The recent heatwaves in Europe remind us that climatic conditions are already changing. El Niño could further amplify the effects of global warming later this year.