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🇹🇭 Thailand /Environment & Climate

Super El Niño to hit Thailand next year, altering rainfall patterns

From Bangkok Post · () English

Translated from English, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Thailand faces a Super El Niño event starting in October, expected to last through early 2027.
  • The phenomenon could reduce rainfall by at least 10%, impacting crops and water supplies, with potentially more severe effects than previous occurrences due to climate change.
  • Experts warn of shifting rainfall patterns, longer dry spells, and concentrated heavy downpours, potentially leading to drought in inland provinces and reduced second-crop rice production.

Thailand is bracing for a "Super El Niño" event, predicted to arrive in October and persist through the early part of the 2027 rainy season. This unusually strong warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is expected to significantly impact the kingdom's agriculture and water resources.

The Thai Meteorological Department forecasts a potential rainfall reduction of at least 10%. Surapong Sarapa, director of the Weather Forecast Division, cited NOAA's prediction of an 81% chance for a very strong El Niño developing between October and December this year, possibly the most powerful since 1950. While Super El Niño events have occurred in Thailand before, including 1997-98, 2015-16, and most recently in 2024, this year's impacts are anticipated to be more severe due to escalating global temperatures.

"A changing rainfall pattern is a consequence of rising global temperatures," Sarapa explained. "As a tropical country, we may not feel significantly hotter conditions, but we will face more serious changes in rainfall patterns. We need plans to reduce the impacts and strengthen water security." He noted that while border areas might receive sufficient rain, inland provinces could face drought as reservoirs struggle to capture water from rainfall concentrated in specific regions.

The Royal Irrigation Department also expressed concerns. Thanes Somboon, spokesman for the department, warned that severe drought conditions are likely to reduce second-crop rice production by approximately 20% next year due to insufficient water. The Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives is preparing mitigation strategies, including an alternate wetting and drying system for rice cultivation to conserve water.

A changing rainfall pattern is a consequence of rising global temperatures. As a tropical country, we may not feel significantly hotter conditions, but we will face more serious changes in rainfall patterns. We need plans to reduce the impacts and strengthen water security.

— Surapong SarapaDirector of the Weather Forecast Division at the Thai Meteorological Department, explaining the expected impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Bangkok Post in English. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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