Suspicious wallet bets on US-Iran peace deal hours before announcement, sparking insider trading fears

An anonymous wallet's massive profit on the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket, made by betting on a US-Iran peace deal just hours before its announcement, has sparked insider trading allegations. The wallet, created only two hours before its first transaction, placed a large bet on the deal's success when the market probability was only 6%.

As news of the potential agreement spread, the market's assessed probability of the deal's success surged to over 80%. This pattern of alleged insider trading is not isolated; similar suspicious activity was noted in the oil futures market just before an announcement by President Trump. US regulators have reportedly launched an investigation into these unusual trading patterns.

Data from blockchain analytics firms Dune and Polysights, analyzed by Bloomberg, revealed the wallet's activity across four different betting markets on Polymarket. The findings suggest a potential exploitation of non-public information for financial gain, casting a shadow over the integrity of prediction markets and raising questions about regulatory oversight.