Swedish army chief on Russia: ‘My job is to think about the worst-case scenario’

“My job is to think about the worst-case scenario,” Sweden’s new army chief, Johan Pekkari, said during his first foreign trip in the post, a visit to Finland.

Pekkari said Russia had clearly demonstrated its readiness to use force to move borders. He argued that Sweden and Finland therefore needed to plan for the most severe possibility, rather than focus on predicting the likelihood of a particular attack.

“I do not like talking about risks, because it easily becomes a question of probabilities, and that is not my task. My job is to think worst case, in other words, to start from the worst scenario,” Pekkari said. If fighting in Ukraine ends, he added, Sweden must closely watch Russia’s actions, as well as developments along Finland’s and the Baltic states’ borders. Maintaining a shared picture of the situation was “incredibly important,” he said.

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My job is to think worst case, in other words, to start from the worst scenario.

Pekkari would not judge whether Russia might strike Finland, the Baltic states or strategic islands often mentioned in speculation, including Gotland, Svalbard and Åland. But he said Russia had clearly challenged the rules-based world order.

“Russia has already shown that it is prepared to try to move borders by force. That is something we must include in our planning. If I put on Russian glasses, I see a Europe that is expanding and strengthening its military capability,” he said.

The timing of Pekkari’s visit drew particular attention. Sweden had recently announced military assistance to Finland to counter drones, while Finland again closed part of the eastern Gulf of Finland so its armed forces could shoot down stray Ukrainian drones without endangering the public. Germany also accused Russia of being behind an explosive drone found at Leipzig airport in August.

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Russia has already shown that it is prepared to try to move borders by force. That is something we must include in our planning. If I put on Russian glasses, I see a Europe that is expanding and strengthening its military capability.