Swiss 'population limit of 10 million' referendum appears set to fail

Swiss voters are heading to the polls for a referendum that could cap the nation's population at 10 million people, a proposal that projections suggest will be rejected.

The initiative, spearheaded by the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP), sought to limit the country's population to under 10 million by 2050. The SVP, the largest party in the Swiss parliament, has long focused on immigration issues, citing concerns that rapid population growth from external immigration is overloading national infrastructure, driving up housing rents, and potentially eroding national identity. The proposal, dubbed the "Sustainable Plan," would compel the Swiss government to implement measures to maintain the population below the 10 million mark.

Should the initiative pass, Switzerland would face difficult choices. If the population reaches 9.5 million before 2050, the government would be forced to restrict refugee intake, family reunification, and the issuance of residency permits. It could even necessitate the termination of the EU's agreement guaranteeing the free movement of people between Switzerland and its neighbors. The Swiss government and business community have strongly opposed the initiative, calling it "self-harming" and urging voters to reject it.

Supporters of the current immigration levels argue that decades of growth have been crucial for filling labor and expertise gaps across various sectors, including healthcare, finance, pharmaceuticals, and technology. The government and business leaders fear that passing the initiative would inevitably sour relations with the European Union, Switzerland's largest trading partner, and disrupt access to the European single market, ultimately harming national interests. Some have even likened the referendum to a Swiss "Brexit."

Switzerland's population has grown by 23% since 2002, reaching 9.1 million by the end of last year, coinciding with a 24% increase in GDP. Projections indicate that at the current immigration trend, Switzerland's population could exceed 10 million in the early 2040s. Foreign nationals constitute about 28% of the current population, the third-highest proportion among OECD countries. Unlike many European nations where migrants often come from Africa or Southwest Asia, the majority of immigrants to Switzerland originate from neighboring EU countries.