Taiwan election countdown: Huang Wei-han identifies four keys and asks whether the KMT can still win big

With fewer than 90 days until Taiwan’s local elections, veteran media commentator Huang Wei-han is asking whether the Kuomintang can repeat its landslide victories of 2018 and 2022.

Huang said the pattern of the past decade has been “the greens winning nationally and the blues winning locally.” He identified four indicators for the coming contest: party support, the favorability of leading candidates, the KMT’s effort to take Kaohsiung, and the DPP’s push in New Taipei.

The figures he cited show the two camps starting from different positions. Combined support for the blue and white parties stood at 25.2 percent, below the green camp’s 33.4 percent. Huang listed favorability ratings of 60.1 percent for Tsai Ing-wen, 48.3 percent for Lai Ching-te and 19.8 percent for Cheng Li-wen.

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The greens winning nationally and the blues winning locally

Kaohsiung is a key target for the KMT, but incumbent mayor Chen Chi-mai has very high polling numbers and is expected to fight hard for the contest because of its implications for his future political prospects. In New Taipei, the DPP is seeking a breakthrough after 21 years without a change in governing party. Hou You-yi’s satisfaction rating exceeds 70 percent, while the potential candidates Lee and Su are closely matched in polling.

Huang said the KMT is targeting Penghu, Kaohsiung, Tainan and Pingtung, while the DPP is seeking to hold New Taipei, Hsinchu, Taitung, Changhua, Chiayi and Yilan. Because the KMT won 15 counties and cities in the last election and the DPP won five, Huang judged that a 14-seat KMT result would already amount to a retreat, while six seats would give the DPP a win.

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Even if the blue camp wins 14, that would count as a setback, while six for the green camp would already be a win