Taiwan's population to fall below 20 million by 2045, report warns

Taiwan faces a stark demographic challenge as its population is predicted to fall below 20 million by 2045, a significant acceleration from previous projections. The National Development Council's latest report highlights the irreversible trends of low birth rates and an aging society as the primary drivers of this demographic shift.

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The time point for the total population to fall below 20 million has been moved forward by four years to 2045, from the previous estimate of 2049.

The report, covering projections from 2026 to 2075, indicates that the decline in total population will be more rapid than previously anticipated, moving the milestone from 2049 to 2045. Compounding this issue, the workforce is set to age dramatically. Within a decade, by 2037, individuals aged 45 to 64 are expected to constitute over half of the working-age population. This demographic transformation points to severe labor supply constraints in the coming years.

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In ten years, by 2037, over half of the working-age population will be composed of middle-aged and older groups aged 45 to 64, and the labor supply will face severe contraction.

Adding to the electoral landscape, Taiwan's Central Election Commission has made decisions on several proposed referendums. Two proposals, one on "whipping" and another on "dedicated traffic fine revenue," were deemed ineligible as they did not meet the criteria for "creation or referendum of major policies" under the Referendum Act. Only the "Abolish Nuclear Homeland" referendum will proceed and be consolidated with the year-end general elections. The commission's chairman, You Ying-lung, stated that the "Abolish Nuclear Homeland" referendum alone is estimated to cost over NT$800 million, with vote counting expected to conclude around 11:40 PM on election night.

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We have 100% confidence in holding the year-end elections well.