Taiwan Should Plan Jointly with U.S. and Japan Against Chinese Blockade: Ex-Official

Taiwan should collaborate with the United States and Japan to formulate a comprehensive plan against potential Chinese blockades, according to Randall G. Schriver, chairman of the Project 2049 Institute. Schriver, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense, stated that China is simultaneously developing capabilities for both military invasion and economic coercion.

Schriver, who was visiting Taiwan from July 26 to August 1, 2026, noted that China's increasing "gray zone" tactics, such as deploying coast guard vessels in Taiwan's waters, aim to compress Taiwan's operational space without triggering a military response. He believes these actions also reduce warning times for Taiwan, the U.S., and their allies, making responses more challenging.

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Taiwan should simultaneously prepare for both Chinese military invasion and intensified coercion and blockade.

"The probability is higher but the danger is lower" for blockade scenarios, Schriver explained, contrasting it with military invasion, which he described as "lower probability but extremely dangerous."

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The probability is higher but the danger is lower... lower probability but extremely dangerous.

He urged the U.S. and Japan, along with other nations concerned about peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, to consider various contingencies, including blockades. Schriver advocates for joint planning and exercises to bolster deterrence. He also highlighted the importance of Taiwan enhancing its societal defense resilience, particularly concerning limited stockpiles of essential resources like liquefied natural gas and ammunition.

Schriver suggested that Taiwan should also cooperate with countries capable of assisting in anti-blockade efforts, mentioning Japan and the Philippines. He commended Taiwan's current direction in promoting whole-society defense resilience but stressed the need for increased urgency and focus in resource allocation and actions.

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The U.S. and Japan should jointly develop anti-blockade plans with Taiwan, covering how to maintain the corridor between Keelung Port and Japan's Yonaguni Island.