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Tehran aims to knock US out of Middle East before renewed attacks on Israel, expert tells ‘Post’

From Jerusalem Post · () English

Summarized by DistantNews. Read the original for the full story.

At a glance

Analysis Named sources Ongoing story
  • Iran’s attacks on US-linked sites in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain form part of a strategy to push Washington out of the Middle East before a possible renewed conflict with Israel, analyst Tom Cooper said.
  • Cooper said pressure on Gulf states and disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz could raise costs for regional neighbors while preserving Iran’s military capacity.
  • He also argued that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may be using American military and political support while it remains available.

Iran’s attacks on US-linked targets across the Gulf are aimed at removing the United States from the Middle East before another war with Israel, military historian and analyst Tom Cooper told The Jerusalem Post.

knocking out one opponent, the USA, out of this war

— Tom CooperCooper described what he sees as Iran’s strategy for targeting US forces and allies.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched retaliatory strikes overnight on sites linked to the United States in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain. The attacks followed renewed US strikes on IRGC targets in Iran. Cooper said Tehran was focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and regional neighbors so it could “knock out one opponent, the USA, out of this war” while preserving its firepower for a future Israeli attack.

Pressure on Gulf states could come through more than direct strikes. Cooper said attacks and threats affecting the free movement of oil, gas and fertilizer exports could increase insurance costs and shipping risks. In his view, Tehran was giving neighboring governments “the option of reconsidering their stance, while not expecting them to do so.”

the option of reconsidering their stance, while not expecting them to do so

— Tom CooperCooper explained the pressure Iran could place on neighboring Gulf states.

Cooper said the IRGC had prepared for this kind of conflict for decades. An Israeli attack, he argued, could create a wider two-front war and damage infrastructure in western Iran and Tehran, but would not necessarily hurt Iran enough to decide the outcome. He pointed to the IRGC’s underground missile cities and its doctrine of asymmetric deterrence, designed to impose high costs on the United States and its allies while controlling escalation.

This approach aligns with the IRGC’s doctrine of asymmetric deterrence: it is precisely the kind of war for which they have been preparing for at least 20 years.

— Tom CooperHe linked Iran’s current strategy to long-term IRGC military planning.

He added that Tehran might rely on time, waiting for US President Donald Trump’s patience, supplies or presidency to run out. Cooper said Netanyahu was likely trying to “spend” American military support while he had access to it. The article cited a Pew Research poll showing that 42% of Americans viewed the Israeli people negatively and 62% viewed the Israeli government unfavorably.

spend

— Tom CooperCooper said Netanyahu was likely using available American military support.
About this summary

Originally published by Jerusalem Post. Summarized and contextualized automatically by DistantNews, with a note on how the source frames the story. Not individually reviewed before publishing. How this works.

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