Tehran readies to crush renewed unrest, risking war to maintain control in Strait of Hormuz

Tehran is positioning itself to suppress potential domestic unrest and endure prolonged economic hardship, anticipating an extended US blockade or a return to conflict. International experts suggest that while Iran remains open to negotiations, any agreement must meet its core demands, particularly maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The Institute for the Study of War assessed that hardliners within Iran's Supreme National Security Council could back a deal with the US, provided it respects Tehran's terms, including continued Iranian control over the vital waterway. This assessment is informed by reports of indirect contact between IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi and the US, with Vahidi reportedly preferring a negotiated resolution.

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Iranian entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider region, as Iran will be ready to make decisions and take action on difficult decisions.

However, a senior Iranian official indicated that Iran would adopt a "fully offensive" posture following Washington's refusal to extend a temporary ceasefire agreement. "Iranian entities must be prepared to escalate tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider region, as Iran will be ready to make decisions and take action on difficult decisions," the official stated, adding that Tehran would execute a "timely and precise" military attack to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy faltered.

The institute also noted that Vahidi is unlikely to support a deal that cedes control of Hormuz, citing continued attacks on vessels without coordination with Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority. The previous memorandum of understanding, which expired Monday, included a clause requiring Iran to allow safe passage for commercial vessels. Tehran's interpretation of this as leaving Hormuz under its control contributed to the agreement's collapse and the renewal of the US blockade, further straining Iran's economy. Despite economic crises and past protests, hardliners appear willing to accept the financial consequences and potential instability.

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Tehran would conduct a “timely and precise” military attack to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy failed.