Texas Senate Race Tightens: Poll Shows Near-Tie Between Cornyn and Talarico

As the November 2026 midterm elections approach, a newly released poll from Texas paints a picture of a fiercely contested race for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas. The survey, conducted by Texas Southern University in collaboration with YouGov, suggests that the incumbent Republican John Cornyn and the Democratic challenger James Talarico are virtually neck-and-neck, with the outcome potentially decided by a razor-thin margin.

The poll explores two key scenarios, contingent on the outcome of the Republican primary election scheduled for May 26. In one scenario, should Senator John Cornyn successfully fend off his challenger, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and secure the Republican nomination, the poll indicates a minimal lead for Cornyn. He garners 45% support compared to Talarico's 44%, with a small percentage for the Libertarian candidate Ted Brown and a notable portion of undecided voters.

However, the race tightens considerably in the alternative scenario. If Ken Paxton emerges as the Republican nominee, the poll reveals an exact tie, with both Paxton and Talarico capturing 45% of the vote. This suggests that Talarico, a Democratic state representative, holds a strong position regardless of who wins the Republican primary, although Paxton's potential candidacy appears to consolidate opposition more effectively.

Furthermore, the survey delves into voter perceptions of the candidates. James Talarico emerges with the highest favorable image among likely voters, boasting a 46% positive rating. In contrast, both Cornyn and Paxton face more mixed or negative reviews. Cornyn's favorable rating stands at 37% with a 49% unfavorable rating, while Paxton's is 42% favorable against 48% unfavorable. The poll also touches upon the enduring influence of former President Donald Trump within the Texas Republican electorate, showing him with a 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable rating.

From a Texas perspective, this poll underscores the state's evolving political landscape. While traditionally a Republican stronghold, the data suggests a growing competitiveness, particularly in statewide races. The close numbers indicate that Talarico is a formidable candidate capable of mobilizing Democratic and independent voters. The dynamics of the Republican primary, especially the potential impact of Ken Paxton's candidacy, will be crucial in shaping the general election contest. The article, as presented by La Nación, provides a detailed breakdown of the polling data, including demographic breakdowns, offering Texans a clear snapshot of the electoral battlefield ahead.