Thailand's Divisive Ex-PM Out of Jail, But Is The Thaksin Era Over?

For a figure who has spent a significant portion of the last two decades in exile or behind bars, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra continues to cast a long shadow over Thailand. His recent release from Bangkok prison, at 76 and fitted with an electronic ankle bracelet, marks the end of an eight-month stint for part of a one-year sentence related to corruption and abuses of power during his premiership from 2001 to 2006. While his party, Pheu Thai, insists he will recede into the background, the Thai media is abuzz with speculation about his potential continued influence.

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His release from prison in Bangkok, at the age of 76 and wearing an electronic ankle bracelet, after serving part of a one-year sentence for corruption and abuses of power during his terms as prime minister from 2001 to 2006, was headline news in Thailand.

Thaksin's impact on Thai politics since his rise to power in 2001 has been profound. A self-made billionaire, he reshaped the country, garnering both fervent loyalty and intense opposition. His parties consistently won elections, even after his 2006 ousting by a coup. However, the powerful royalist establishment, wary of his ambition, has repeatedly used court rulings and political maneuvering to thwart his allies, leading to years of street protests and another coup in 2014.

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His party Pheu Thai's insistence that from now on he will remain in the background could not stop feverish media speculation over what role he might still play in Thai politics.

Even from abroad, Thaksin continued to exert control over his party. His return in 2023, following what appeared to be a 'grand bargain' with conservative rivals, saw him directing the party once it was back in government. His apparent inability to step aside, despite claims of wanting to spend more time with his grandchildren, has defined his political career.

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Thaksin seems incapable of taking a back seat, whatever he may say about spending more time with his grandchildren.

This time, however, the political terrain has shifted significantly. Thaksin's imprisonment last September followed a series of court decisions that impacted his party's standing. Pheu Thai experienced its worst-ever electoral performance in February, falling to third place behind the reformist Move Forward Party and the conservative Bhumjaithai Party. Consequently, Pheu Thai now finds itself as a junior partner in the new coalition government. As political analyst Ken Lohatepanont notes, Thaksin emerges into a "new political environment" where Pheu Thai is "sidelined as just a mid-sized party." While one might never count Thaksin out, the challenges he and his party face are substantial in this altered landscape.

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Thaksin emerges from prison to a new political environment. Pheu Thai has been sidelined as just a mid-sized party. You can never count Thaksin out, but the challenge that he and hi