The $412bn cost of putting infrastructure before people

Nigeria is grappling with a profound human capital deficit, quantified by the staggering cost of $412 billion and the widespread issue of childhood stunting. Between 1960 and 2025, an estimated 119 million Nigerians were born stunted, a condition resulting from chronic malnutrition that causes lasting damage to brain development, immune function, and lifelong earning capacity. Of these, approximately 76 million are alive today, comprising close to a third of the nation's population.

This underreported crisis places Nigeria second globally for the number of stunted children, after India, and first in Africa, with 40% of children under five affected as of 2023-24. The situation is dire, with only two in ten children suffering from severe acute malnutrition receiving treatment. This unfolds against the backdrop of one of the world's fastest-growing populations; Nigeria, currently the sixth most populous nation, is projected to become the third by 2050, surpassing the United States.

The causes of stunting are complex and varied, extending beyond historical events like the 1967-70 Civil War. While the war's blockade-driven famine impacted the South-East and parts of the South-South, current data suggests contemporary factors like poverty, environmental damage from the oil sector, food systems, and inadequate health infrastructure are more significant drivers of regional variations in stunting rates today. These forces are disproportionately affecting a population where 60% are under the age of 24.

The article argues that decades of policy failure have prioritized infrastructure over people, creating a "baked-in" deficit. The consequences of neglecting early childhood nutrition and development are severe and escalating with population growth. The current trajectory indicates that Nigeria is failing to address these challenges effectively, leading to worsening outcomes with each passing survey and placing immense pressure on social services and economic prospects.