The AfD’s strategic patience in eastern Germany has paid off

The AfD’s triumph in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt marks a turning point in the history of the Federal Republic. Never since 1949 has a party to the right of the CDU and CSU won an election with such a strong result.

The victory has many contributing factors. The CDU fielded a lacklustre lead candidate, while the AfD’s charismatic contender set new standards on social media. Chancellor Friedrich Merz is deeply unpopular, and his promise of a political shift, summed up as “The left is over,” has collided with his inability to deliver it in coalition with the Social Democrats. His decision to sacrifice the debt brake before the election also damaged one of the CDU’s last firm principles.

Economic decline and possible cuts to pensions and healthcare have added to the pressure. Those concerns hit the low-income state of Saxony-Anhalt faster than they do other parts of Germany. Together, these issues transferred support from the CDU to the AfD. But the party’s intimidating strength cannot be explained only by CDU mistakes or its personnel.

The AfD’s own strategy has also worked. It resisted becoming a majority-maker for established parties too quickly. The left-nationalist BSW, positioned at the opposite end of the political spectrum, gave in to the temptation of joining government rapidly in Thuringia and nearly destroyed itself as a result.

The AfD could not make that mistake because of the firewall separating it from other parties. That may have been better for Germany and the CDU, but not for the AfD. By keeping its distance, the CDU prevented the AfD from harming itself. That is the irony.

The party’s success rests on its distinct identity. It is not simply another version of the familiar, nor is it a CDU returning to its roots, even though it shares positions on energy and migration that the CDU held before Angela Merkel’s era. From eastern Germany, the AfD has instead developed a German-national and isolationist profile that sets it apart.