The attack off Sulina signals a new phase of the war. What a retired commander says about the risks for Romania

An incident Tuesday morning near Sulina, where an LPG tanker was damaged, has intensified concerns about security in the Black Sea. Reports suggest the vessel, Gas Lisbon, may have been struck by Russian forces, escalating tensions in the region. This event, coupled with a recent Ukrainian drone incident, raises legitimate questions about the risks present in the Black Sea and the vulnerability of Romania's critical infrastructure.

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From the data we have, it is not so clear whether the ship was hit by the Russians, by the Ukrainians... Very, very probably it is a Russian attack on a ship heading to a Ukrainian port. We should have expected this, because a new phase of the naval war in the Black Sea began about two weeks ago.

Retired Commander Sandu Valentin Mateiu, who has extensive experience in military naval operations and intelligence analysis within the Romanian Ministry of National Defense, offers insights into the situation. He explains the conditions under which Romanian vessels remain safe and outlines the primary risks. Mateiu suggests that while the exact perpetrator, whether Russian or Ukrainian, is not definitively clear, a Russian attack on a ship heading to a Ukrainian port is highly probable. He notes that this marks a new phase in the naval war, which began about two weeks prior with Ukrainian attacks on fuel tankers heading to Crimea.

Mateiu anticipates that Russian drone and missile strikes will increasingly target any vessel serving Ukraine, particularly those in Ukrainian territorial waters, nearby areas, and international waters. He points out that Russia's actions, including attacks on Odesa's grain port, have already impacted grain markets. Consequently, Ukraine may become more reliant on its Danube ports and Romania's Port of Constanța. The Russian strategy of attacking ships far from the front lines suggests a calculated approach, as vessels at greater distances have fewer protective measures.

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It was expected that Russia, besides taking measures to defend these commercial ships, would attack Ukrainian ships, would attack Odesa, the port of Odesa, where the grain is loaded. And we already have an impact on the grain market.

The commander's analysis underscores the volatile nature of the Black Sea, where commercial shipping faces growing peril. The targeting of ships serving Ukraine signifies a deliberate escalation by Russia, potentially disrupting vital supply lines and impacting global food security. Romania, as a neighboring country and a key transit point, remains vigilant regarding these evolving threats.

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And at the same time, the Russians have started attacking ships heading to Ukrainian ports, especially those at a great distance. And this is not accidental either. Because, yes, the further you are from the front line, the fewer protection measures you have.