The current state of Iran’s nuke, ballistic missiles threat post MoU - exclusive

Two weeks after the US-Iran deal, Iran continues to possess over 400 kilograms of 60% highly enriched uranium, presenting a significant nuclear threat, according to officials familiar with the issue. This level is critically close to the 90% enrichment required for weapons-grade uranium. The Islamic Republic appears to be maintaining the status quo regarding its nuclear program, potentially refraining from further enrichment or centrifuge construction but also not committing to dilute or surrender its existing enriched uranium.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors are being denied access to crucial nuclear sites, including Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, which were reportedly damaged. These facilities hold the 60% enriched uranium that requires IAEA supervision for removal or dilution. Both U.S. President Donald Trump and IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi have demanded full, unrestricted access for inspectors to all facilities, particularly those related to the 60% enriched uranium.

Leaks from U.S. officials during negotiations suggested Iran had agreed to address the 60% uranium issue, with the primary negotiation point being the sequencing of this action relative to the release of funds and the lifting of U.S. sanctions. However, Israeli officials express concern that Iran's commitment may falter, especially as the regime continues to pressure the U.S. regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This concern is amplified by a reported reduction in American military presence in the region since early April, potentially limiting the capability for any forceful response.

Recent attacks by the U.S. Central Command on Iranian assets near Hormuz have been perceived by sources as largely symbolic, lacking substantial impact. This follows previous instances where President Trump has reportedly backed down from earlier positions toward Iran, including unconditional surrender demands.