The data that could explain Sweden’s election

The governing Tidö parties could lose the election because they have lost voter trust on the “soft” issues and failed to make the campaign about the “hard” ones, according to an analysis by Anders Sundell in Svenska Dagbladet’s editorial section.

The final result remains uncertain, but the analysis uses Novus data to examine why voters might choose one bloc over the other. It assumes voters support the party they believe has the best policies on the issues they consider most important. Parties can therefore gain support either by improving their credibility on important issues or by making issues where they already perform well more prominent.

Before the 2022 election, this calculation gave the Tidö parties a small overall advantage. The red-green opposition led narrowly on healthcare, the most important issue, but voters rated the Tidö parties strongest on the next four issues: crime, schools, energy policy and immigration. Their biggest advantage concerned crime.

The picture now points to a disadvantage for the government bloc. Crime, immigration and energy policy, three of its strongest areas, rank as less important in this election. Energy policy has dropped out of the top five, replaced by elderly care. The red-green bloc also loses some benefit because climate policy, its strongest issue, has fallen in importance. At the same time, the Tidö parties have clearly strengthened their credibility only on defense and foreign policy, while losing ground in nearly every other area. The red-greens now hold a slight advantage on schools and have expanded their leads on climate and healthcare. Sundell links the broad decline in trust to the “cost of ruling,” as governments face judgment over unfulfilled promises and general dissatisfaction.