The homeless Right: Likud's biggest gamble in upcoming elections - analysis

A segment of right-wing voters in Israel, characterized as the "homeless Right," feel abandoned by existing political parties, posing a significant challenge in the upcoming elections. These voters, who have traditionally supported right-wing ideologies and have strong ties to military service, are disillusioned with parties they believe have compromised their values.

Many of these voters served in the army or have family members who did, and they feel betrayed by parties like Likud for allegedly shielding ultra-Orthodox (haredi) draft evasion to maintain coalition stability. They are also critical of figures like Bezalel Smotrich, whose career was built on the national-religious service ethos but who is seen as compromising on the issue of haredi conscription. Even Naftali Bennett's new party, Beyachad, is viewed with suspicion by some due to past political alliances.

Data suggests this "homeless Right" represents at least six seats, making them decisive in a political landscape where blocs are nearly tied. A Channel 12 poll indicated that 42% of Likud's 2022 voters are no longer firmly committed to the party, with most not drifting further right but rather disengaging. This voter group is united by a conviction that a party preserving the current haredi exemption from military service is unacceptable.

For national-religious voters, the issue of military service is deeply personal, tied to the sacrifices made by their community. With the political blocs largely frozen, these "liquid votes" are crucial. Their decision will determine whether the right can reassemble a majority or if the deadlock leads to further political paralysis.