The trap of probability

Amber, a fossilized plant resin, serves as a unique time capsule, preserving remnants of ancient life within its translucent depths. This fossilized material, often yellowish, is considered a gemstone despite its organic origin. As liquid resin, it can trap delicate elements like leaves, pollen, and insects, which remain visible millions of years later, providing a window into bygone ecosystems.

The Dominican Republic is particularly renowned for its amber, especially that derived from the resin of the now-extinct *Hymenaea protera* tree, prized for its exceptional clarity. A notable artisan, Jorge Caridad from Santo Domingo, discovered a remarkable four-kilogram piece of amber in 1995. This fossil, estimated to be 25 million years old, contained an extraordinary find: nearly a hundred ants belonging to an extinct species.

This "Jorge Caridad" fossil gained further historical significance when it was incorporated into the Museu de la Ciència de Barcelona in December 1995. In a unique twist, the fossil traveled to space in October 1998 aboard the NASA Discovery shuttle. This mission marked the return of astronaut John Glenn to space and the historic debut of Spain's first astronaut, Pedro Duque.

During the mission, at the request of the museum's director, Jorge Wagensberg, Duque carried the "Jorge Caridad" fossil for ten days. Wagensberg, a professor of irreversible processes, designed this experiment to challenge the role of probability in decision-making. The experiment aimed to explore how the concept of irreversible change, where a system's future state cannot be predicted from its present state, interacts with the vastness of space and time, questioning our reliance on calculated probabilities in understanding the world.