The trend that could make Ulf Kristersson a winner

A shift towards greater optimism among Swedish voters regarding the nation's development could provide a boost to the ruling Tidö parties, according to a recent DN/Ipsos poll. While the opposition parties collectively still hold a larger share of support, subtle changes in public sentiment suggest the governing bloc may be gaining traction as the 2026 election approaches.

Nicklas Källebring, an opinion analyst at Ipsos, notes that while party support levels remain largely stable, there are underlying movements indicating the Tidö parties are beginning to "gain momentum." This is reflected in a notable decrease in pessimism; in February of the previous year, two-thirds of Swedes believed the country was heading in the wrong direction. Today, fewer than half hold that view. Simultaneously, the number of optimists, though starting from a low base, has more than doubled in the past year.

Despite global uncertainties and energy concerns, the government can point to perceived successes, such as progress in combating crime, and economic relief measures like reduced VAT on food, lower fuel taxes, and promises of cheaper public transport. Källebring suggests that as the election nears, a positive public mood, or "feelgood-feeling," becomes increasingly important for the government.

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The mood among voters is getting brighter. The closer we get to the election, the more important it is for the government that there is a 'feelgood-feeling.'

Further indicators that might favor the Tidö parties include a declining percentage of voters desiring a change in government, falling below 50 percent for the first time this parliamentary term. Although more people still see Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats as a potential prime minister after the election compared to Ulf Kristersson of the Moderate Party, the long-term trend shows a narrowing gap, despite a slight reversal in the May poll.

The most significant challenge for the Tidö bloc lies with the Liberal Party. Despite a strategic shift in March to align more closely with the Sweden Democrats, the party's support has stagnated at around 2 percent in recent polls, well below the 4 percent threshold required for parliamentary representation. This lack of electoral traction remains a critical vulnerability for the governing coalition.

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The support for the parties is more or less still, but it's moving under the surface. My impression is that the Tidö parties are starting to gain momentum. It can leave its mark in future surveys.