The Tumen River like the Amnok River, the Amnok River like the Pearl River

The Tumen River, a waterway bordering China, North Korea, and Russia, presents a stark contrast to the more developed Amnok (Yalu) River. While the Amnok River benefits from historical development, including infrastructure like the Supung Dam and a well-maintained channel allowing large vessel navigation, the Tumen River has remained largely underdeveloped. This underdevelopment stems from historical decisions, such as the 1860 Beijing Treaty, which blocked China's access to the East Sea, and subsequent actions by Japan that intentionally obstructed navigation.

“

Compared to the Amnok River, the Tumen River is much quieter.

Despite international interest, including the Tumen River Area Development Program (TRADP) initiated in 1991 and later upgraded to the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI) in 2005, progress has been slow. North Korea's withdrawal from the GTI in 2009 due to nuclear issues stalled the initiative for years.

“

The Tumen River's status has attracted the attention of China, which longs for access to the sea, as well as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), leading to the establishment of the Tumen River Development Plan in 1991.

However, recent diplomatic shifts suggest a potential revival. Joint declarations from recent China-Russia summits indicate a move towards transforming the GTI into an independent international organization and pursuing trilateral negotiations on the Tumen River. The mention of fully reopening border crossings between North Korea and China further signals a renewed focus on regional economic cooperation.

“

The current situation strongly suggests a change in the Tumen River. If North Korea, China, and Russia work together, the Tumen River will transform like the Amnok River.

This renewed attention is driven by strategic interests. Russia aims to shift its policy agenda towards economic development post-conflict, seeing GTI's activation as beneficial for relations with China and its Far East development. North Korea, having declared nuclear force completion, needs China's cooperation for its ambitious 10-year modernization plan for 20-plus cities and the revitalization of its Wonsan-Kalma international tourism zone. Simultaneously, the Amnok River is also anticipating an upgrade with the potential opening of the New Amnok River Bridge, a four-lane highway bridge completed in 2015 but delayed due to sanctions and the pandemic. If fully utilized, this bridge, combined with active North Korea-China trade, could transform the Amnok River estuary into a miniature version of the Pearl River Delta, a bustling economic hub.

“

This bridge was completed in 2015, but its opening has been delayed due to the UN sanctions and COVID-19 blockade that followed. News is emerging that the customs work on the North Korean side has been completed, and the New Amnok River Bridge will open soon.