The unstoppable rise of Madame Le Pen

Marine Le Pen’s rise may look unstoppable, but the article argues that she would win a French presidential runoff only if the two-thirds of voters who do not identify with her remain divided.

The piece opens by noting that Sweden’s right-wing government, supported by the far right, could be defeated on Sunday. That possibility, it says, should not obscure the far-right victory in Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt, the rise of a new Italian far right that openly supports Vladimir Putin, the entrenchment of xenophobic nationalism in Britain and polls indicating that Le Pen could be elected by French voters on 2 May.

The article says the left has lost the cultural dominance it held after the Second World War, and that the world now thinks from the right. Yet Sweden, like Britain two years earlier, could show that the center and left can still win elections in a right-leaning political environment. Le Pen’s advance, the author argues, is not the result of an irresistible force. She would be defeated automatically if the apparently diverse and fragmented majority opposed to her recognized its deep areas of agreement.

Climate change is presented as one such point of convergence. After a summer of heat and the tragedy in Nepal, the article says only a small minority of French people still rejects the reality of climate change and the fundamental measures it requires. It also argues that an overwhelming majority sees Donald Trump as a threat to France’s economy and independence, and as an opponent who openly seeks support from the far right in France and across Europe.

The article further points to Russian sabotage operations in France and elsewhere in Europe, which it says have sharply reduced sympathy for Vladimir Putin. It argues that Le Pen and her allies are trying to make voters forget how warmly they once regarded Putin and Trump. Other shared concerns include the threat of Chinese dumping to French industry and the need to strengthen European unity, as well as the belief that American incompetence is worsening conflicts in the Middle East. The author concludes that the center and left, joined partly by far-right and radical-left voters, already share positions on the five major dangers facing France. The political challenge is to make that majority visible and bring it together.