The US-Iran MoU is a product of Tehran's survival-first strategy - analysis

A new Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran has emerged, with many observers interpreting the development as a setback for the U.S. and Israel. This perspective suggests the emerging deal will empower Iran and potentially isolate Israel further.

For years, Iran's leadership has maintained a cautious stance toward engaging with Western powers, particularly after the U.S. withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This distrust, cemented by the U.S. exit from the deal, has driven Iran to pivot towards China and Russia. The regime has focused on strengthening ties with these nations and developing infrastructure for economic corridors, aiming to expand trade with Central Asia.

However, Iran's economic struggles have hampered these ambitions. A proposed 25-year agreement with China, for instance, has seen little actual investment flow into Iran. Beijing reportedly views Iran as a volatile regime, offering a low return on investment compared to other regional partners.

Iran's strategic calculations were also impacted by recent regional conflicts. The regime sought to instigate a multi-front war against Israel, but this strategy resulted in the weakening of Hamas and significant setbacks for Hezbollah. In the aftermath, Iran's primary goal shifted to preserving its existing proxy network.

With the advent of a new U.S. administration, Iran has indicated a willingness to engage in indirect talks. These discussions, mediated initially by Oman and later Qatar, have been slow. Previous attempts at dialogue were disrupted by Israeli airstrikes in June 2025, followed by U.S. military actions, leading to a shift in mediation.