The warning bell before the unpredictable final round

If the road to the elections is an endurance race, this year’s Thessaloniki International Fair sounds the warning bell before the final round. The race has not yet reached its final stretch, but its pace is changing, and the strategy and stamina of the runners are becoming more important.

New Democracy enters the next cycle with a lead that appears difficult to overturn and a clear advantage in several key areas of governance. At the same time, the party has suffered substantial wear and faces open fronts. Pressure from both its right and its left forces it into constant balancing, largely from a defensive position rather than through an aggressive effort to broaden its appeal.

SYRIZA initially achieved its first objective by taking the upper hand in the opposition. It has not yet developed comparable momentum, however. The coming period will show whether its influence has stabilized or whether the opposition’s leadership will again be contested.

For PASOK, the new round will determine what role it can claim in the final phase of the election campaign. A return to the fight for second place would give the party different goals and ambitions. Remaining third, by contrast, would leave it facing serious and difficult strategic dilemmas.

Most smaller parties have not yet converted the decline of traditional political formations into enough momentum to demand a more interventionist role. New or expected parties associated with Maria Karystianou and Antonis Samaras are targeting distinct electorates, from a politically mixed, somewhat anti-establishment audience to disillusioned right-leaning New Democracy voters. All parties will also face the unavoidable question of what they will do with the share of the vote they receive, especially as no clear path to a single-party majority or a realistic shift in political balances has emerged. The wider environment remains highly fluid, with trust in society, politics and institutions at extremely low levels and concern about the country’s direction widespread.