The world hangs in the balance as autumn elections approach

This autumn’s elections will shape more than Sweden’s immediate future. They will test leaders who are waging wars, expose the limits of their political support and determine how much power they can still exercise at home.

In the United States, nearly two years of Donald Trump’s term will have passed, with two years remaining. The midterm elections could constrain the president. A change of power in at least one chamber of Congress appears likely, and a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives would make it much harder for Trump to push through his policies.

Trump has so far relied on a Congress fully controlled by Republicans. With that support, he has launched a major war in the Middle East, created a self-styled peace council that competes with the United Nations, threatened allies and ordered military attacks in several countries. He would retain substantial control over foreign policy and the military regardless of the result, but polling shows declining confidence in him and growing impatience with his wars. A major defeat could turn him into a lame duck and weaken his influence over the Republican Party.

Israel’s election for the Knesset will be the first since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attacks and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu, often described as a prime minister with nine lives, has repeatedly survived scandals and political setbacks. Critics and analysts have long accused him of escalating conflicts and deepening polarization so he can present himself as Israel’s defender. He is again opposing the latest Gaza peace initiative.

Netanyahu and his ultra-religious allies appear to be losing support, but polls predict that neither the governing bloc nor the opposition will win a majority. In Russia, meanwhile, the State Duma election is portrayed as no real election, with the result effectively known in advance. Vladimir Putin must contend with simmering public discontent while trying to project strength during the prolonged invasion of Ukraine. Opposition parties have been obstructed or banned, most recently the liberal Yabloko party after it opposed the war. The permitted parties follow the dictator’s rules, while United Russia’s campaign presents the war as essential to Russia’s security and highlights soldiers as war heroes on its candidate list.

The United Nations is also due to receive a new secretary-general at the turn of the year, when António Guterres of Portugal leaves the post.