"The worst scenario": Marcelo Lagos explains the type of earthquake Chile "is waiting for"

Chilean geographer Marcelo Lagos explained the country's seismic risks following a recent 6.0 magnitude earthquake that shook regions from Coquimbo to Maule. Speaking on Expreso Bío Bío, Lagos clarified that while a major earthquake is a possibility, Chile's diverse seismic zones mean a large imminent quake is not guaranteed. He noted that different seismic zones have their own rhythms and cycles, which are not linear.

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In Chile, there is a tradition of connecting earthquakes with damage, victims, something that structurally shakes a country and implies something bigger... We have experienced earthquakes that in Chile we call moderate intensity earthquakes.

Lagos distinguished between moderate earthquakes, which are often associated with damage and structural impact in Chile, and the larger events the country anticipates. He cited historical earthquakes, such as the 1985, 1906, and 1822 events, which occurred at the Nazca and South American plate contact zone. These interplate earthquakes were relatively deep and felt intensely near the coast.

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Each one has its rhythms, its cycles, although they are not linear.

However, Lagos emphasized that these are different from the "worst credible scenario" earthquake anticipated for the central zone of Chile. He also mentioned larger events that occur further west, towards the Pacific and the subduction zone's marine edge. These events, he explained, have higher magnitudes, greater intensity, and significantly larger tsunamis.

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But they are not like the earthquake we are waiting for in the central zone.

"That is the scenario we are waiting for for the central zone, in the worst credible scenario," Lagos concluded, highlighting the variability and specific characteristics of potential seismic events in Chile.

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That is the scenario we are waiting for for the central zone, in the worst credible scenario.