Theory: Minister visited rival – triggered migrant crisis

A theory suggests that Morocco may have intentionally created the migrant crisis in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta as a political maneuver. This perspective, shared by several experts consulted by Dagens Nyheter, posits that the influx of approximately 60,000 people from Morocco into Ceuta over a few days was a calculated response.

Jan Eliasson, former UN Under-Secretary-General and Sweden's ex-Foreign Minister, stated on X that it is "increasingly clear that the 'migrant crisis' around Ceuta is a fabrication." He believes the event is linked to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's recent visit to Algeria, a country in direct political rivalry with Morocco. Eliasson suggests that Morocco likely disapproved of this rapprochement between Spain and Algeria, leading to strong reactions from Moroccan officials and the public.

Carl Bildt, another former Swedish Foreign Minister, concurs with this assessment. He told Sveriges Radio Ekot that evidence suggests Moroccan authorities facilitated the movement of people to the border and that Moroccan border guards may have deliberately lowered border barriers. Jan-Paul Brekke, a migration expert at Norway's Institute for Social Research, echoed this, noting that the events could only have occurred because guards on the Moroccan side "looked away and were absent."

Brekke also pointed out similarities to a similar event in 2021, when the Moroccan government eased border controls, allowing thousands into Ceuta over two days. Aron Lund, a Middle East expert at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, emphasized the need for more details, noting Morocco's silence on the incident. This lack of comment could indicate significant domestic tension, as the crisis has led to Moroccan deaths, making it a sensitive issue for the population and raising questions about accountability.