These graphs show why Ebola outbreak is on track to be worst in history

The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is on track to become the deadliest in history, spreading at an unprecedented pace and overwhelming a region already grappling with conflict and food insecurity.

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, stated that the epidemic is already the second-largest on record and is moving faster than any previous outbreak. The highly transmissible virus causes severe flu-like symptoms, progressing to vomiting, diarrhea, and organ failure, placing immense strain on the DRC's northeastern health system.

Health authorities are in a race against time, struggling to scale up testing, contact tracing, and isolation efforts. If they fail, the death toll is expected to surpass that of the devastating West African epidemic from 2014-2016, which claimed at least 11,308 lives. As of Friday, the DRC outbreak had caused 2,214 deaths from 4,727 confirmed infections, with 85% concentrated in the Ituri province.

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It is already the second-biggest Ebola epidemic on record, and it is moving faster than any previous Ebola outbreak.

The speed of the current outbreak is particularly alarming. It took only 37 days to reach 250 deaths, compared to 78 days for the West African epidemic and 130 days for a previous DRC outbreak. Similarly, it surpassed 1,000 confirmed cases in just 38 days, a milestone that took over 230 days in the 2018 DRC outbreak. Researchers believe the current outbreak began two to three months before its official declaration on May 15, with early cases likely misdiagnosed as malaria or typhoid.

Compounding the challenge is the evidence of 'hidden' transmission, suggesting actual case numbers far exceed official figures. In July, over 80% of new cases could not be linked to known contact lists, indicating the virus is evading trackers. This situation has led to a sense of playing catch-up, with fears that the virus could spread beyond the region's borders, as cases have already been detected in neighboring Uganda.

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The outbreak had a big head start, it is still way ahead of us, and we are playing catch-up.