Those who fail to read history are doomed to perish

Every empire eventually reaches its end, and the pattern of rise and collapse often follows a familiar path, the commentary argues. Ibn Khaldun described four stages: a poor but cohesive group conquers a more civilized society, builds a state and enjoys prosperity; decadence then sets in; the state becomes unable to defend itself; and a stronger, more united group takes its place.

The examples span two thousand years. Rome reached its greatest territorial extent under Emperor Trajan in 117 AD, but the decision to defend all its conquests at once stretched its armies and contributed to the empire’s collapse. The Ottoman Empire ruled across many countries for 600 years before fighting on three fronts contributed to bankruptcy.

The British Empire reached a peak controlling 24% of the globe, with the world’s strongest navy and sterling as the reserve currency. Yet expansion drained its resources. The Soviet Union, the commentary says, had entered its fourth stage by 1985, with its army deployed across various countries. It continued military spending and the arms race rather than withdrawing, while Gaza and Afghanistan were also targeted, producing what the piece calls a catastrophic cost.

The commentary says some analysts believe the United States has been exhausted by the cost of wars over the past 20 years. Historians of imperial collapse, it adds, describe a fifth stage that is not a battle, invasion or precisely predictable event. It begins when an empire’s leaders wake to find that its money has vanished, its ammunition is gone and its debts have grown dramatically. Rome, the Ottomans, Britain and the Soviet Union all declined gradually rather than falling in a single day or defeat.