Tinubu's Reforms Need More Than Four Years to Deliver, Says Ojugbana; Policy Continuity Vital for Industrialization, Food Security

Four years is insufficient for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's economic reforms to deliver their full impact, and reversing course could jeopardize Nigeria's recovery, warned Les Ojugbana, founder of Farmafrik.org. Ojugbana described the removal of the petrol subsidy as a necessary step, despite the significant cost-of-living pressures it created.

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Four years cannot repair decades of structural failure. President Tinubu inherited problems that were not created in four years. Nigeria has struggled for decades with infrastructure deficits, import dependence, subsidy distortions, foreign-exchange challenges and a weak industrial base. These problems will not disappear overnight.

"Four years cannot repair decades of structural failure," Ojugbana stated, emphasizing that Nigeria's deep-seated problems, including infrastructure deficits and import dependence, would not vanish overnight. He recognized that millions of Nigerians have yet to experience the benefits of the reforms and urged the government to accelerate efforts to cushion households and convert economic growth into tangible jobs and improved purchasing power.

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The pain is real. Food, transportation and other basic costs have hit families very hard. Government must ensure that the benefits of reform reach ordinary Nigerians much faster.

Despite the "real pain" felt by families due to rising costs of food and transportation, Ojugbana pointed to recent economic indicators suggesting stabilization. Nigeria's GDP grew by 3.89% in Q1 2026, up from 3.13% a year prior, and headline inflation decreased to 15.43% in July. He cautioned, however, that lower inflation means prices are rising more slowly, not falling. "The Nigerian masses may not have felt these improvements yet," he said, noting the typical lag between economic stabilization and its impact on employment and wages.

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The Nigerian masses may not have felt these improvements yet. There is usually a lag between economic stabilisation and when investment, employment, wages and purchasing power begin to respond.

Ojugbana cited Tony Elumelu, Chairman of Heirs Holdings, as an example of private sector improvement. Elumelu reported a significant reduction in oil theft, with losses dropping from 97% to about 2%. He also praised foreign-exchange market reforms, which have made dollar access easier for businesses. "I am not a politician, so I’ll speak my truth," Elumelu commented. Ojugbana concluded that these developments are crucial for rebuilding Nigeria's economy, urging policy continuity to strengthen the foundations rather than dismantle them.

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If the foundations are beginning to work, this is the time to strengthen them, while demanding better execution, not dismantle them.