Tomas Ramberg: Catastrophic Numbers for Andersson

Alarm bells are ringing across Sweden’s opposition parties after a poll produced what commentator Tomas Ramberg calls catastrophic numbers for Magdalena Andersson. The sharpest warning sounds inside the Social Democrats, who risk their worst election result in more than a century.

With 10 days remaining before the 2026 election, the contest no longer looks safely decided. A TV4/Novus poll found the gap between the right-wing bloc led by Ulf Kristersson and the opposition had narrowed to less than three percentage points. Ramberg cautions that it is only one reading of public opinion, and other polls in the coming days may show different results.

Still, several figures stand out. If the poll became the election result, the Social Democrats would fall far below their previous performance over the past 100 years. Even if Andersson managed to become prime minister, the result would weaken her authority in difficult coalition negotiations. If the opposition lost because of a Social Democratic collapse, Ramberg argues, her time as party leader could be short. Her election strategy has already proved controversial, and many inside the party are waiting to dismantle it after a defeat.

The Liberals, by contrast, have reason to celebrate. Their support climbed above 3%, the level political scientists often cite as necessary to attract tactical votes. It remains below the 3.5% threshold Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Åkesson set for ending his advice that right-wing voters should not support the Liberals tactically.

Åkesson set September 3 as his deadline during a speech in Sölvesborg. Ramberg notes that the speech coincided with the start of Novus’s polling and suggests Åkesson’s threat may have helped the Liberals. At the same time, Åkesson can point to gains for his own party. The Sweden Democrats’ lead over the Moderates has grown, strengthening the party’s position regardless of the final result. If the governing Tidö parties overtake the opposition in the final week, a government built on a strong Sweden Democrats performance would be even more dominated by the party than the Social Democrats’ projected alternative.