Trump and referendum talk mark unpredictable Quebec election, analysts say

Quebec's provincial election campaign is underway, with analysts predicting a far less certain outcome than in 2018. The Coalition Avenir Québec, led by François Legault, previously dominated, but this year's race features new leaders and pressing issues like resurgent independence talk and U.S. trade concerns.

The official campaign is expected to launch soon, with polls showing the sovereigntist Parti Québécois in the lead since 2023. However, their once-projected landslide victory has diminished, particularly among francophone voters. Poll aggregator founder Philippe Fournier likens the current situation to a hockey team with a slim lead in the third period, a stark contrast to their earlier comfortable advantage.

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There is a favourite, but it’s very close. So anything can happen.

This election could see up to five parties secure seats, a rarity not seen since 1976, potentially increasing the likelihood of a minority government. Each party leader faces distinct challenges. Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon aims to hold a referendum, despite lukewarm public interest. The Coalition Avenir Québec, under its new premier, must convince voters of its fresh ideas after the previous government's unpopularity. The Liberals need to broaden their appeal to francophones and regional voters, while the Conservatives seek their first legislative seat. Québec solidaire is working to regain traction.

Recent polling indicates a significant portion of the electorate remains undecided, suggesting a population unimpressed by current party offerings. The upcoming campaign is therefore crucial, as voters weigh the various platforms and leadership styles in a closely contested race.

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So you suddenly feel much less comfortable watching the third period.