Trump, do not bet on Syria's leader al-Sharaa to dismantle Hezbollah - opinion

Recent reports indicate that U.S. President Donald Trump may be exploring the possibility of involving Syria's new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani), in dismantling the powerful Lebanese organization Hezbollah. Such a policy direction, if seriously considered, raises significant questions about the understanding of Middle Eastern dynamics and historical lessons.

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If this is indeed a policy direction being seriously considered, it raises troubling questions about the understanding of Middle Eastern realities and the lessons of the past.

Al-Sharaa's background includes years of association with jihadist groups, notably al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria. While he has recently attempted to rebrand himself as a pragmatic leader focused on governance, his past affiliations cannot be easily dismissed. The notion that he could be instrumental in dismantling Hezbollah, a formidable military and political entity, presents a complex paradox.

Hezbollah is not merely a militia; it is a deeply entrenched organization with tens of thousands of fighters, a substantial missile arsenal, and significant influence over Lebanon's state institutions. Dismantling it is unlikely to be achieved through external actors or simple declarations, especially without a meaningful power base within Lebanon itself.

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The question is whether this change in image truly reflects a deeper transformation in ideology and interests.

Furthermore, any such move must be viewed within the context of regional alliances. Reports suggest the Syrian government under al-Sharaa receives substantial support from Turkey, which has invested heavily in northern Syria. Strengthening al-Sharaa's leadership could inadvertently expand Turkey's regional influence. From Israel's perspective, this shift is strategically significant, especially given increasingly hostile rhetoric from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Replacing Iranian influence with Turkish influence might not improve Israel's strategic position, potentially introducing a new, complex challenge.

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Hezbollah is not merely a militia. It is a military, political and economic organization with tens of thousands of fighters, a vast missile arsenal and deep influence over Lebanon’s state institutions.

The article advises caution for Washington, noting that U.S. policy in the Middle East has often relied on reshaping regional realities through local partners, with mixed results in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. The author suggests that Trump should not bet on al-Sharaa to dismantle Hezbollah, implying a need for a more nuanced understanding of the region.

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Replacing an Iranian sphere of influence with a Turkish one would not necessarily improve Israel’s strategic position. One threat could simply be replaced by another, no less complex challenge.