Trump heads into midterms short on foreign policy wins

President Donald Trump is heading into the crucial midterm elections with his ambitious foreign policy agenda facing significant headwinds. The conflict with Iran remains a costly standoff, while crises in Ukraine and Gaza persist unresolved. This situation is a stark contrast to Trump's promise upon returning to office to be a "peacemaker" and make international conflict resolution a cornerstone of his second term.

Trump has shown growing impatience with both reporters and international allies. This week, he reacted sharply to journalists pressing him on foreign policy matters and reiterated a threat to bomb Oman, a nation involved in negotiations with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. As the traditional campaign kickoff on Labor Day approaches, Republicans are concerned that these unresolved international conflicts and their domestic economic consequences could jeopardize their control of Congress.

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Trump has successfully challenged and disrupted the comfortable foreign policy consensus in Washington, but has not translated that disruption into a strategy with deliverables for Americans.

The Iran conflict is taking a notable political toll. After weeks of pursuing a diplomatic solution, Trump has called off talks with Tehran, announcing a new campaign of "economic warfare." This appears to be an acknowledgment that months of military actions have failed to yield the concessions the U.S. sought. With inflation remaining a persistent issue and the Iran war driving up gasoline prices, Trump's approval rating has dipped to a low of 33 percent, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll.

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The conflict with Iran has weighed “intensely” on the president and there is no consensus inside the White House on how to resolve it.

Other diplomatic efforts have also stalled. Jared Kushner, Trump's negotiator and son-in-law, returned from Gaza peace talks without a deal. An anticipated visit by Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff to Kyiv to restart stalled negotiations on ending Russia's war in Ukraine has also not yet materialized. Following early foreign policy successes like a Gaza ceasefire and the capture of Venezuela's leader, Trump's record is now increasingly characterized by these diplomatic impasses. Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted that while Trump has disrupted the traditional foreign policy consensus in Washington, this disruption has not yet translated into tangible benefits for Americans.

The Iran war is weighing "intensely" on the president, with no clear consensus within the White House on a resolution, according to one Trump ally speaking anonymously. The pressure could mount if investors perceive the war as prolonged, potentially increasing U.S. borrowing costs and further constraining Trump's domestic agenda. Trump maintains that the economic costs are justified to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, despite Iran's denials of pursuing them. A White House statement, however, highlighted Trump's success in restoring American respect, citing the end of nine wars, the freeing of hostages from Gaza, fairer trade deals, and preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.

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President Trump has successfully made America respected again, and the results speak for themselves – nine wars have ended, hostages have been freed from Gaza, trade deals are fairer, and now, Iran will be prevented from ever possessing a nuclear weapon.