Trump's shifting security messaging: Israel faces friction with US on Turkey F-35 deal - analysis

President Donald Trump signaled a significant shift in US policy toward Turkey, suggesting the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets during a NATO summit in Ankara. Standing alongside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump stated that the US would consider the deal because relations with Turkey were better than with countries perceived as more loyal.

Erdogan quickly reinforced Trump's message, noting that Turkey had already been promised five planes and that Trump "always keeps his commitments." This exchange exposed Trump's differing perspective from Israel's. While Trump views Turkey as a vital NATO power with strategic influence, Israel sees Ankara as a regional adversary actively confronting it and aligning with Iran.

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This is a decision we are going to make.

The F-35 deal has become a focal point for this broader debate about Turkey's role in the international arena. Trump appears eager to bring Turkey back into the Western fold, suggesting that sanctions imposed under CAATSA and its removal from the F-35 program could be reconsidered. "I don’t want to sanction friends," Trump remarked, opening the door to a more forgiving approach toward a key ally.

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Turkey had already been promised five planes and that Trump “always keeps his commitments.”

Trump's rationale centers on Turkey's strategic importance: its control over the Black Sea-Mediterranean passage, influence in Syria, knowledge of Iran, and substantial NATO military presence. He believes engaging Turkey within the American framework, rather than alienating it, could better serve US interests by stabilizing the region and curbing Russian influence.

However, this interpretation is difficult for Israel to accept. Erdogan's Turkey is increasingly viewed not as a complex Western ally with tolerable deviations, but as a regional power expanding its influence. Concerns in Israel include Turkey hosting Hamas, its diplomatic confrontation with Israel, perceived intentions to attack Israel alongside Iran, and its assertiveness in the eastern Mediterranean. The F-35 debate thus hinges on Washington's and Trump's evolving perception of Erdogan's Turkey.

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I don’t want to sanction friends.