Trump's USMCA threat reflects U.S. political timing, Mexican business leaders say

Mexican business leaders are bracing for continued political pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the USMCA trade agreement, seeing his threats as a reflection of U.S. political timing ahead of midterm elections. José Medina Mora, president of the Business Coordinating Council (CCE), advised preparedness, stating that Trump "will continue to hit Mexico."

Medina Mora explained that the trade pact has two potential paths. If the U.S. withdraws or no agreement is reached, the treaty will remain in effect for another decade, subject to annual reviews. Alternatively, if all three nations agree to renew the USMCA, it will be extended for 16 years with reviews every six years. Trump's comments appear to refer to the former scenario, which business leaders emphasize is acceptable as long as the treaty persists.

Last year, many companies hesitated to invest due to uncertainty surrounding the treaty's review. Now, they recognize that Trump's actions create broader global uncertainty, particularly with tariffs, altering international trade conditions. However, within this global geopolitical uncertainty, Mexico is viewed as a privileged location. Foreign investors express interest in Mexico, citing its access to the world's largest market, contrasting it with conflicts and political instability elsewhere.

Mexico is the United States' top supplier, surpassing China, Taiwan, and Canada. It represents the number one market for 24 economic sectors in Mexico and is the top or second-largest market for 26 U.S. states. Medina Mora characterized Trump's actions as "political blows that have nothing to do with the commercial relationship." The second formal review session of the treaty is scheduled for June 16-17, with agricultural issues expected to be a key topic. Representatives from the National Agricultural Council will attend this session.