Trump seeks lower meat prices, and Argentina could pay the cost

Donald Trump has opened a short, potentially decisive window for cheaper beef imports into the United States, while Argentina risks being pushed aside by Brazil.

The special quota allows 300,000 tonnes of lean beef for ground meat to enter duty-free over 90 days from September 1, at a rate of 100,000 tonnes per month. The US government is seeking to lower retail ground-beef prices by 25%. More than half of the beef consumed in the United States is eaten in that form.

With November elections approaching, the administration is concerned about the effect of high fuel and beef prices on inflation and voters’ mood. Trump has repeatedly responded to complaints from ranchers by telling them, “You have never been better than now.” Ranchers resisted an earlier 80,000-tonne special quota for Argentina and are now sharply criticizing the additional quota. Their warning is blunt: “This will cool the rebuilding of herds.”

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You have never been better than now.

Cattle prices and imported-beef prices fell after the new measure was announced. The declines came on top of a larger drop several weeks earlier, when Washington said it would reopen imports of live calves from Mexico, a flow of about 1.2 million calves a year. Although that equals only 3% of US calves weaned, the decision had a disproportionately negative psychological effect and caused a substantial fall in Chicago futures.

The exact implementation of the new quota remains unclear, but analysts believe Brazil could be its main beneficiary because it has no specific US quota, unlike most other suppliers. The narrow 90-day window raises questions about whether Brazil can produce, ship and deliver such a volume in time. Argentina is focused on renewing its separate 80,000-tonne quota for 2027 and could suffer if a large Brazilian influx pushes US import prices lower.

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This will cool the rebuilding of herds.