Trump threatens new Iran escalation, risks repeating old mistakes

President Donald Trump has intensified US air strikes on Iran and is contemplating broader escalation, yet the effectiveness of a military strategy that has failed to yield concessions is being questioned. With a month-old interim ceasefire deal collapsed, Trump faces a dilemma as he aims to disrupt Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz and force Tehran to accept his demands.

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There’s no reason to believe that this latest set of attacks or whatever the president has in mind will compel the Iranians to change their thinking. It’s perhaps more likely to harden their position.

While a full-scale conflict has been avoided so far, hopes for a swift de-escalation have diminished. The ongoing crisis has already pushed up global oil prices and caused significant tremors in financial markets. Tit-for-tat attacks have continued for six days, and Iran has suggested it might encourage its Houthi allies in Yemen to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait if Washington targets Iran's energy infrastructure, as Trump has threatened.

Trump has reportedly discussed expanding targets to include energy plants and bridges, and potentially seizing Iran's Kharg Island oil hub or bombing a nuclear-linked site. However, many of these options are seen as unrealistic due to high risks and potential domestic and international backlash. Analysts suggest that a major US escalation, short of a ground invasion, is unlikely to be more effective than previous military actions in changing Iran's behavior. Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US intelligence officer, stated that the current attacks are more likely to harden Iran's position than compel a change in thinking.

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the only language that Iran understands is military might

A senior Trump administration official, however, indicated that while diplomacy is the president's preference, "the only language that Iran understands is military might." The US will continue to hold Iran accountable for "terrorist acts" in the strait. The unravelling of the interim deal comes as Trump faces pressure to end a war that has caused significant casualties and economic strain at home, impacting his approval ratings ahead of the midterm elections. Negotiations for a permanent peace deal have stalled, despite some hints of diplomatic progress.

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the US will continue to hold it accountable for “terrorist acts” in the strait.