Trump wants war to end but Iran refuses to back down

The United States and Iran are signaling a desire to avoid reigniting the war that has been on hold since an April 8 ceasefire. However, ongoing military exchanges between the two nations are complicating peace talks mediated by Pakistan and Qatar.

Both sides maintain forces within striking distance, with the US aiming to pressure Tehran and Iran vowing to resist. This tense situation carries a significant risk of miscalculation and misperception.

The primary goal for a broader deal is to extend the ceasefire and agree on a "memorandum of understanding" for future talks. This is proving difficult, as Iran is expected to demand concessions, such as sanctions relief or the release of frozen assets, in exchange for reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz.

The closure of the Strait, following attacks by the US and Israel on February 28, has crippled global shipping. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have alternative export routes, the world has lost approximately 20% of its usual oil and gas supply. This disruption has global economic consequences, affecting even US gasoline prices, which are tied to the global market.

President Donald Trump faces a difficult situation. He underestimated Iran's resolve, and re-escalating the conflict would likely increase domestic opposition. Iran, meanwhile, appears determined to maintain its leverage, complicating any easy exit for the US.