Tunisia Braces for Accelerated Aging as Population Growth Slows

Tunisia is on the cusp of a demographic shift, with projections indicating a period of very low population growth that could lead to near stability by 2054. This anticipated demographic landscape is driven by a sustained decline in fertility rates and a marked acceleration in the aging of its population, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INS).

The INS's 2024-2054 demographic projections reveal that Tunisia's population was 11.97 million in 2024, a figure lower than previous estimates, signaling a demographic transition that has unfolded more rapidly than expected. The fertility rate has plummeted from over three children per woman in 1994 to just 1.54 in 2024, falling below the level required for generational replacement. Projections suggest the population will reach 12.16 million by 2030 and approximately 13.3 million by 2054, with the growth rate slowing to a near standstill.

This demographic evolution is reshaping Tunisia's age structure. Younger age groups are expected to shrink, while the proportion of individuals aged 60 and over will steadily increase. This shift will inevitably heighten the demand for elder care services and present new challenges for the nation's health, social protection, and solidarity systems.

However, the INS identifies a "demographic window" between 2030 and 2045. This period will see a rise in births as generations born between 2000 and 2014 reach reproductive age. This could potentially spur a modest recovery in birth rates, provided young Tunisians have the economic and social conditions to pursue family plans. Concurrently, women are projected to become a larger share of the population, rising from 50.7% in 2025 to 52.2% in 2054, attributed to longer female life expectancy and predominantly male emigration.

The INS concludes that Tunisia is entering a new demographic era defined by slow population growth and increasing age. Adapting public policies in employment, health, social welfare, and family support will be crucial to navigate these upcoming decades of demographic change.