Tunisia braces for hotter-than-average summer in 2026

Tunisia is bracing for a summer in 2026 that is predicted to be hotter than usual, according to the National Institute of Meteorology (INM). Seasonal average temperatures from June to August are expected to surpass the climatic norms established between 1991 and 2020 across the entire country.

The INM's seasonal forecast highlights that while summer typically brings stable weather conditions with high temperatures, regional variations are significant. Coastal regions can anticipate temperatures ranging from 22°C to 24°C, whereas inland areas, especially in the center and south, will experience higher temperatures, potentially between 25°C and 33°C. The southern station of Tozeur is noted as likely to record the highest temperatures.

Beyond the heat, the forecast also indicates a moderate probability of precipitation exceeding normal levels in most parts of Tunisia. However, the INM cautions that localized regional uncertainties remain regarding rainfall patterns. Seasonal rainfall norms vary considerably by region, with the highest amounts typically observed in the western parts of the north and center, ranging from 34 to 62 mm. Eastern regions are expected to receive moderate rainfall between 15 and 34 mm, while southern areas will likely see the lowest amounts, between 3 and 12 mm.

Looking at the monthly breakdown, June 2026 is expected to feature distinctly summer-like conditions, with temperatures generally between 23°C and 25°C in the north and center, and 25°C to 31°C in the south. Rainfall in June is predicted to be very low, often below 25 mm in the north and center, and below 12 mm in the south. July is anticipated to be the driest month, with average temperatures between 26°C and 30°C in the north and center, and 28°C to 33°C in the south. Precipitation in July rarely exceeds 15 mm in the north and center and is almost nonexistent in the south. August will see a gradual transition towards the autumn rainy season, with temperatures ranging from 25°C to 30°C in the north and center, and 27°C to 33°C in the south. August rainfall is expected to be between 15 to 30 mm in the western north and center, less than 8 mm in the south, and generally not exceeding 18 mm elsewhere.