Tunisia's oil production plummets as companies exit amid declining fields and energy transition

Tunisia's oil production continues its structural decline, with an estimated 13% drop by the end of March 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. Experts attribute this trend to a combination of geological, economic, regulatory factors, and the global energy transition.

International energy specialist Ezzedine Khalfallah points to the advanced maturity of the country's main oil fields, particularly in southern Tunisia and the Gulf of Gabès. These fields, after decades of exploitation, are naturally depleting, leading to an inevitable decrease in extracted volumes that is difficult to offset without major new discoveries.

This situation is compounded by a significant slowdown in exploration activities over the past decade. The number of exploration and exploitation permits has drastically fallen, reflecting diminished investor interest in Tunisia's hydrocarbon sector and a lack of investment in exploratory drilling.

Consequently, several international companies have scaled back their operations or exited the Tunisian market. They cite insufficient profitability, stemming from a lack of significant discoveries and limited production prospects compared to more economically attractive regions. The global energy sector's shift towards renewables like solar, wind, and green hydrogen, driven by decarbonization policies, further reduces interest in areas with uncertain returns.

Investors also point to the regulatory and fiscal framework, noting administrative complexities, lengthy authorization processes, and a lack of long-term fiscal visibility. Social tensions at some production sites have also caused intermittent disruptions, adding to operational uncertainty and increasing the cost per barrel in aging fields.