Turning Turkey’s double bind against it: How Israel is outsmarting Erdogan - opinion

Israel is strategically dismantling Turkey's leverage by cultivating alternative regional partnerships, thereby diminishing Ankara's perceived indispensability. This approach counters Turkey's long-standing strategy of exploiting its position as a crucial, yet unpredictable, regional player.

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Turkey must be Western enough to be financed, armed, and consulted, yet revisionist enough to remain indispensable.

Turkey's foreign policy operates within a complex "double bind." It must maintain sufficient ties with the West for financing, arms, and consultation, while simultaneously pursuing revisionist actions to remain indispensable. This involves manufacturing friction, brokering relief, and then profiting from its intermediation. Punishing Turkey risks pushing it toward Russia or disrupting NATO, while rewarding it incentivizes further demands. This cycle of coercion and concession has historically granted Ankara impunity, especially when alternatives were scarce.

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Punish Turkey, and it threatens to pivot toward Russia, obstruct NATO, restrict access, or open another theater. Reward it, and coercion pays.

However, Israel is actively multiplying these alternatives. While the United States remains hesitant to fully resolve this "Turkish double bind" due to its reliance on Turkish access in regions like the Black Sea and Syria, institutions are working to dismantle dependence on Ankara. This institutional strategy, distinct from political rhetoric, operates under the principle that no vital Israeli function should rely on Turkey.

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Each concession reprices the next demand. Indispensability becomes impunity, but only while alternatives remain scarce.

The recent Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, signals an export of Turkey's influence-peddling mechanism beyond NATO. This agreement signifies Riyadh's acceptance of Turkish involvement in regional conflicts. While Ankara monetizes its indispensability, Jerusalem is systematically dismantling it. The policy is described as an "unofficial Sèvres Deterrent," invoking Turkey's historical fear of partition and encirclement, rooted in the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres. This doctrine weaponizes Turkey's need to be seen as essential, without directly threatening its territory.

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Defense, diplomacy, intelligence, and industry outlast elections and converge on one rule: no vital Israeli function may depend on Ankara.