Typhoon Bailong's Path Uncertain, Key Factor for Taiwan Threat

The path of Typhoon Bailong remains uncertain, with its northern trajectory poised to determine the extent of its threat to Taiwan. Forecasters predict the typhoon will enter the East China Sea on Saturday, moving slowly and expected to eventually turn northward. This uncertainty is amplified by differing model simulations regarding the speed of weakening high pressure systems to the north, which influence the typhoon's westward progression.

Currently classified as a large medium-sized typhoon, Bailong is expected to pass near the Ryukyu Islands on Friday before entering the East China Sea. Its eventual turn north is a critical factor; if it tracks further west towards China before turning, its impact on Taiwan would be greater. Conversely, an earlier northward turn in the East China Sea would lessen the threat.

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The northern trajectory will be the key to determining the magnitude of the threat to Taiwan.

Over the weekend, Bailong's outer circulation is expected to brush past Taiwan's northern seas, intensifying rainfall in northern and western Taiwan. Meanwhile, eastern Taiwan could face extreme high temperatures due to descending winds. Following the typhoon's passage, the weather pattern shifts with a southwest wind bringing localized showers and thunderstorms to southwestern Taiwan from Monday to Wednesday. Northern and eastern Taiwan may experience extreme high temperatures again, with afternoon thunderstorms possible in northern areas due to atmospheric instability.

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The uncertainty is increasing.