Typhoon Bavi enters fourth eye wall replacement, path shift raises landfall concerns

Typhoon Bavi has begun its fourth eye wall replacement phase after passing its third peak, signaling a potential weakening trend, though it is still expected to be a powerful storm. Forecasters anticipate the typhoon's intensity will decrease as it nears Taiwan, likely arriving as a strong typhoon on its lower end or a mid-level typhoon on its upper end. Despite this, its large size, with a storm radius of 320-350 kilometers and a 10-grade wind radius of 150 kilometers, means it will still pose a significant threat.

Starting tonight, Bavi's outer cloud bands will begin affecting Taiwan, bringing scattered showers to areas from Hsinchu to Yilan. By Friday, central and northern Taiwan, along with eastern areas like Hualien, will experience increasingly noticeable rain. Strong gusts are also expected along Taiwan's western coast and outlying islands from Friday afternoon due to topographic effects, with potential for 8-10 grade gusts. Areas facing the wind, such as the coasts of Yilan and Hualien, could see even stronger gusts of 9-12 grades.

The most severe impacts are predicted for Saturday, when the typhoon's center is expected to pass north of Taiwan. Northern Taiwan, especially areas north of Hsinchu and Yilan, along with mountainous regions in central Taiwan, are bracing for continuous strong winds and heavy to extremely heavy rainfall. Southern Taiwan will also see intermittent rain and strong gusts, potentially reaching heavy rain levels. Eastern Taiwan, being on the leeward side, might experience comparatively less wind and rain, although mountainous areas could still receive heavy rainfall, with a risk of Föhn winds in the East Rift Valley.

Forecasters are closely monitoring the typhoon's path, as land interaction could cause it to deviate, potentially increasing the risk of landfall in northeastern Taiwan. Such a scenario would amplify the wind and rain intensity on Saturday and could extend the period of severe weather into Sunday. While the typhoon is expected to move towards the Chinese coast by Sunday night, residual moisture and atmospheric conditions could still lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the island, particularly in the central and southern regions.