Typhoon Bavi's eye disappears! Expert reveals 'closest 24 hours to Taiwan': radius still 380 km

Typhoon Bavi is drawing closer to Taiwan, with the period between the latter half of today and tomorrow morning expected to be the time it passes closest to the island. Lin De-en, a doctor of atmospheric sciences at National Taiwan University, stated that the typhoon is moving into an environment less conducive to development, citing increased vertical wind shear and lower oceanic heat content.

Observations from satellite imagery show that Bavi's central maximum wind speed has decreased to 45 meters per second, equivalent to a Category 14 wind. The typhoon's eye has vanished, and its eyewall structure has weakened, particularly on the northwest side. Despite this weakening, Bavi still possesses the characteristics of a large typhoon, with its seven-level wind radius extending to 380 kilometers and its ten-level wind radius reaching 180 kilometers.

Forecasting models show divergence regarding Bavi's precise trajectory. AI models suggest a more northerly and easterly path, passing south of the East China Sea, while traditional physical models predict a path closer to Taiwan's northern coast. Meteorological agencies' predictions generally lean towards a slight northward shift. Lin anticipates that Bavi will primarily cause wind damage rather than significant rainfall in Taiwan. Areas north of Miaoli, Yilan, and the outlying islands could experience average winds of level 9 or gusts of level 11 or higher. Coastal areas of central and northern Taiwan are also expected to see large waves exceeding 6 meters.

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From satellite cloud imagery observation, Bavi has entered a sea area that is less conducive to continued development, affected by increased mid-level vertical wind shear, lower oceanic heat content, and the intrusion of dry air from the north.